Spring and Early Summer - Long Range Forecast - Updated 6th April 2011
April
April has started on the mild side across the majority of the UK and is forecast to continue in that vein with all areas expected to see a warmer than average month. Rainfall is once more expected to vary widely across the UK with southern areas likely to be driest compared with the norm for the time of year, whereas further north - and particularly the northwest significantly wetter than average. Into April, the expectation is that drier weather will become more prevalent with much of the country seeing below average rain across the month, at the same time all regions are expected to be slightly warmer than the average.
The overall synoptic situation does not appear to alter substantially during April, with high pressure remaining evident over or close to the British Isles, thus generally instilling a similar pattern of weather as seen in March. As with the preceding month, it appears that the most unsettling effects of the jet-stream will frequently be diverted away from the UK, leaving us with a rather a typical April, given that there are reasonably strong signals for a run of cool north-westerlies in the first half of the month that will bring the characteristic showers or longer spells of rain - and occasional late but non severe frosts. April will end settled, with some pleasant temperatures.
May and June
As we head into May, a change is forecast to take place with many parts of the UK forecast to be wetter than average for the month.
Temperatures are widely expected to be close to, or slightly above average.
May is anticipated to see a mixed month, with rainfall perhaps lower than average in the north, with a wetter than usual month further south. June is expected to be on the dry side for much, but not all of the country. Temperature wise, May is forecast to be close to average for many, whereas June sees that swing to cooler than normal.
July
As usual, the normal health warning applies here in that at this range confidence in the forecast does tend to drop away. Currently though the summer is expected to start on a drier than average note, with that theme continuing at least in the south of the country into July - but in a similar vein to this month (April) the north of the country is forecast see above average rainfall.
Temperatures across the first two months of summer are expected to be close to, or just above average - so potentially a good deal of dry and warm weather to be seen.
(This forecast will be updated on Monday 9th May)
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