Aurora Activity — Will You See the Northern Lights from Southampton?
The aurora borealis (Northern Lights) happens when charged particles from the Sun collide with gases in Earth's upper atmosphere, most often glowing green or red and usually confined to a ring around the magnetic poles — which is why Scotland, Iceland and Scandinavia see it far more often than southern England. Southampton sits at roughly 51°N, well south of the aurora's usual range: seeing it here needs a genuinely major geomagnetic storm, not just routine activity.
It isn't impossible, though. During the severe G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm of 10–11 May 2024 — the strongest in over 20 years — aurora was reported and photographed right across the UK, including southern England, on cameras and in some cases with the naked eye. Storms of that size are rare, but they do happen, and the tools below are the same ones used to watch for the next one.
Right Now: AuroraWatch UK
AuroraWatch UK (run by Lancaster University's Space and Planetary Physics group) is the standard UK-specific alert service, built from real magnetometer data rather than a global model. Their four-colour system:
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Green | No significant activity — aurora is unlikely to be visible by eye or camera from anywhere in the UK. |
| Yellow | Minor geomagnetic activity — aurora may be visible by eye from Scotland, and by camera from Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. |
| Amber | Aurora is likely visible by eye from Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland; possibly elsewhere in the UK. Photos are likely from anywhere in the UK. |
| Red | Aurora is likely to be visible by eye and camera from anywhere in the UK — including Southampton. |
Even at Red, local conditions (clear, dark skies away from light pollution, and looking north) still matter for what you'll actually see.
NOAA 30-Minute Aurora Forecast
NOAA's OVATION model estimates where the aurora oval sits right now, updated every 30 minutes. On a quiet night the oval sits tight around the pole; during a big storm it swells outward, and on a truly extreme night like May 2024 it can reach as far south as the UK's latitude.
3-Day Kp Index Forecast
The planetary Kp index (0–9) is the standard measure of global geomagnetic disturbance. Southampton's latitude typically needs a sustained Kp of 8–9 (a G4–G5 storm) before aurora becomes a realistic prospect — values below that are more likely to be seen only from Scotland or further north, if at all. Below is NOAA's own 3-day outlook, the same feed used on our Space Weather page.
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1).
| UT | Nov 05 | Nov 06 | Nov 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.67 | 2.33 | 5.00 (G1) |
| 03-06UT | 2.67 | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| 06-09UT | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| 09-12UT | 2.67 | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| 12-15UT | 2.67 | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| 15-18UT | 1.67 | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| 18-21UT | 1.67 | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| 21-00UT | 3.67 | 4.67 (G1) | 3.33 |
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely by late on 06 Nov and continuing into 07 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
How Kp Affects What You'll See
| Kp | Typical picture |
|---|---|
| 3 — Quiet | Aurora confined to the far north (Arctic Circle, northern Scandinavia); nothing visible from the UK. |
| 5 — Moderate (G1) | Aurora may reach Scotland and the far north of England on a clear, dark night; not usually visible from Southampton. |
| 7 — Active (G3) | Aurora can be seen across much of the UK by eye, and further south by camera; a realistic chance from Southampton on a clear night. |
| 9 — Very Active (G4–G5) | Aurora can reach the far south of the UK, including Southampton, visible to the naked eye — as happened in the May 2024 storm. |
Based on NOAA's own guidance on how planetary Kp maps to aurora visibility latitude.
NOAA 3-Day Solar Radiation Forecast
Not a direct aurora indicator — solar radiation storms affect polar radio propagation and satellites rather than aurora visibility — but it's part of the same NOAA bulletin as the geomagnetic forecast above, so it's included here in full.
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Threshold | Nov 05 | Nov 06 | Nov 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
NOAA 3-Day Radio Blackout Forecast
Also not a direct aurora indicator — radio blackouts are caused by solar flares affecting HF radio propagation on the sunlit side of Earth — but again, part of the same bulletin, so shown here in full rather than left off or linked elsewhere.
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
| Threshold | Nov 05 | Nov 06 | Nov 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| R3 or greater | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Rationale: A chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will persist through 07 Nov primarily due to the current flare potential exhibited by Region 4566.
Keeping Watch
The status box above updates automatically, so this page is the place to check back on. AuroraWatch UK also run free email, Twitter/X and Telegram alerts tied to the colour levels shown above, and NOAA run an equivalent US-run Aurora Dashboard with live Kp, solar wind and Bz readings alongside the same OVATION ovals shown above. See also our own Space Weather page for the wider solar picture (solar wind, X-ray flux, solar cycle) that drives all of this.